Thursday, May 21, 2015

Friday: CPI, Yellen

by Bill McBride on 5/21/2015 07:03:00 PM

Earlier from the Philly Fed: May Manufacturing Survey

Manufacturing activity in the region increased modestly in May, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were positive but remain at low readings. Employment increased at the reporting firms, but the employment index moderated compared with April. Firms reported continued price reductions in May, with indicators for prices of inputs and the firms’ own products remaining negative. The survey’s indicators of future activity suggest that firms expect continuing growth in the manufacturing sector over the next six months.
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from 7.5 in April to 6.7 in May. ...

Firms’ responses suggest some weakening in labor market conditions this month compared with April. ... The current employment index, however, fell 5 points, to 6.7.
emphasis added
This was below the consensus forecast of a reading of 8.0 for May.

Also the Kansas City Fed reported: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Declined More Sharply
“Factories in our region saw an even sharper decline in May than in March or April, as exports fell further and energy-related producers saw another drop in orders,” said [Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City] “However, firms’ overall still plan a modest increase in employment over the next six to twelve months.”
Tenth District manufacturing activity declined more sharply in May than in previous months and producers’ expectations also fell, with both reaching their lowest levels since mid-2009. ... The month-over-month composite index was -13 in May, down from -7 in April and -4 in March ... Production fell most sharply in energy-producing states like Oklahoma and New Mexico, but it was also down in most other District states.
ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The yellow line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through May. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through April.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys increased slightly in May, and this suggests a another weak ISM report for May.

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Consumer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core CPI.

• At 1:00 PM, Speech by Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen, U.S. Economic Outlook, At the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, Providence, Rhode Island