Monday, February 02, 2015

Tuesday: Vehicle Sales

by Bill McBride on 2/02/2015 08:12:00 PM

Two quick observations ...

First, the December construction spending report probably means a slight upward revision to Q4 GDP.

The advance Q2 report showed 4.0% annualized real GDP growth, and that was eventually revised up to 4.6%.  And the advance Q3 report showed 3.5%, and that was revised up to 5.0%.  Maybe we will eventually get to 3%+ for Q4 ...

Second, on mortgage rates from Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily:

Mortgage rates were just slightly higher today, but generally did a good job of holding on to recent gains. For perspective, last Friday was the only day in the past 21 months with lower rates, and many borrowers may find their quotes unchanged over the weekend. Almost everyone else would simply see minor increases in upfront costs as opposed to changes in the contract rate itself. Those remain steady with conforming 30yr fixed rates of 3.625% widely available for top tier scenarios and 3.5% not far behind.
Tuesday:
• All day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 16.6 million SAAR in January from 16.8 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

• At 10:00 AM ET, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for December. The consensus is for a 2.0 decrease in December orders.