Friday, January 23, 2015

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 3%+

by Bill McBride on 1/23/2015 04:30:00 PM

The advance estimate for Q4 GDP will be released next Thursday. The consensus is for GDP to 3.0% annualized in Q4. Here are couple of forecasts:

From the Atlanta Fed GDPNow:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2014 was 3.5 percent on January 21, up from 3.4 percent on January 14. The uptick was due to a slight increase in the nowcast for fourth-quarter inventory investment after last Thursday's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board.
From Merrill Lynch:
We are forecasting a 3.2% increase in real GDP in 4Q. We expect particularly strong consumer spending of 3.7% even with the disappointing December retail sales report.