Thursday, July 31, 2014

Friday: Jobs, Autos, ISM Manufacturing and More

by Bill McBride on 7/31/2014 09:06:00 PM

From Goldman Sachs economist Sven Jari Stehn: July Payroll Preview

We expect a 235,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls and a one tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 6.0%. As far as payrolls are concerned, our forecast would be a solid gain but at a pace slightly below that seen over the past few months. While a number of labor market indicators improved slightly in July (including jobless claims, the business survey employment components and household job market perceptions), other considerations point to a deceleration in the pace of employment creation (including a slowdown in ADP employment growth, softer online job advertising, higher layoffs and the composition of the June payroll gain).
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 228,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July, down from the 288,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 6.1% in July.

• At 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for June including revised estimates 2011 through May 2014. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

• At 9:55 AM, Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for July). The consensus is for a reading of 81.5, up from the preliminary reading of 81.3, and down from the June reading of 82.5.

• All day, Light vehicle sales for July. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 16.7 million SAAR in July from 16.9 million in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.

• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for an increase to 55.9 from 55.3 in June. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in June at 55.3%. The employment index was at 52.8%, and the new orders index was at 58.9%.

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