by Bill McBride on 5/10/2014 01:01:00 PM
Saturday, May 10, 2014
The key reports this week are April retail sales on Tuesday and April housing starts on Friday.
For manufacturing, the April Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the May NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week.
For prices, PPI will be released on Wednesday, and CPI will be released on Thursday.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on Thursday "Small Businesses and the Economy".
Two key quarterly reports will be released this week: the NY Fed Q1 Report on Household Debt and Credit on Tuesday, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Q1 National Delinquency Survey on Thursday.
2:00 PM ET: The Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for April. Note: The CBO's estimate is the deficit through April in fiscal 2014 was $301 billion, compared to $488 billion for the same period in fiscal 2013.
7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April.
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for April will be released.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992 through March 2014. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.1% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8% from March 2013.
The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.4% in April, and to increase 0.6% ex-autos.
10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for March. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories.
11:00 AM: The Q1 2014 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit will be released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Note: "In conjunction with the release of the report, the New York Fed will also post an update to a recent blog discussing the impact of student loan debt on housing and auto markets."
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in prices.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 317 thousand from 319 thousand.
8:30 AM ET: Consumer Price Index for April. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI in April and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 5.0, up from 1.3 in April (above zero is expansion).
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April.
This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for no change in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 79.1%.
10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 12.5, down from 16.6 last month (above zero indicates expansion).
10:00 AM: The May NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 48, up from 47 in April. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
10:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Q1 2014 National Delinquency Survey (NDS).
6:10 PM: Speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Small Businesses and the Economy, National Small Business Week 2014, Washington, D.C
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for April.
Total housing starts were at 946 thousand (SAAR) in March. Single family starts were at 635 thousand SAAR in March.
The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 980 thousand (SAAR) in April.
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for May). The consensus is for a reading of 84.5, up from 84.1 in April.
10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for April 2014.