Saturday, December 28, 2013

Schedule for Week of December 29th, Happy New Year!

by Bill McBride on 12/28/2013 02:58:00 PM

The key reports this week are October Case-Shiller house price index and December vehicle sales.

For manufacturing, the December ISM Manufacturing index, and the Dallas Fed December survey will be released this week.

Happy New Year to All!

----- Monday, December 30th -----

10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for December.  The consensus is a reading of 4.0, up from 1.9 in November (above zero is expansion).

----- Tuesday, December 31st -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October. Although this is the October report, it is really a 3 month average of August, September and October.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through July 2012 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 13.7% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for October. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 13.9% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 1.0% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. The consensus is for a decrease to 61.3, down from 63.0 in November.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for December. The consensus is for the index to increase to 76.8 from 70.4.

Fixed income market will close early.

----- Wednesday, January 1st -----

All US markets will be closed in observance of the New Year's Day Holiday.

----- Thursday, January 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to be unchanged at 338 thousand.

9:00 AM ET: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index for December.  The consensus is for an decrease to 54.5 from 54.7 in November.

ISM PMI10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for a decrease to 57.0 from 57.3 in November.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in November at 57.3%. The employment index was at 56.5%, and the new orders index was at 63.6%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for November. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in November construction spending.

----- Friday, January 3rd -----

Vehicle Sales All day: Light vehicle sales for November.

The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 16.0 million SAAR in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from  16.3 million SAAR in November.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the November sales rate.

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