Thursday, October 03, 2013

Trulia: Asking House Prices suggest "Slowdown" in Sales Price Increases

by Bill McBride on 10/03/2013 03:33:00 PM

This was released earlier today: Trulia Reports Asking Home Prices Slow Down in Hottest Housing Markets

Nationally, asking home prices rose 3.0 percent quarter-over-quarter (Q-o-Q) in September – the smallest Q-o-Q change since February. However, the downward trend is harder to spot in the more volatile monthly changes and smoothed out yearly changes. Asking prices rose 2.0 percent month-over-month (M-o-M) and 11.5 percent year-over-year (Y-o-Y), but year-over-year changes should start to shrink in the coming months. At the metro level, 89 of the 100 largest metros had Q-o-Q price increases in September, down from 97 in June.
...
Nationally, rents rose 3.0 percent Y-o-Y in September, down from 3.9 percent Y-o-Y in June. Locally, rent rose more slowly in September than in June in 18 of the 25 largest rental markets, including Seattle, Denver, and Houston. However, rents rose faster in September than in June in Portland, San Diego, Phoenix, and several other metros.

“Asking home prices give us the first look at where home sale prices are headed, and they point to a slowdown,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “After rising rapidly in the first half of 2013, asking prices in two thirds of the largest metros are cooling. In fact, asking prices are falling – not just rising more slowly – in 11 of the 100 largest metros, the most markets to see prices slip in six months.”
emphasis added
Note: These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and this suggests further house price increases over the next few months on a seasonally adjusted basis (but the year-over-year increases will probably slow).

More from Kolko: Asking Prices Slowing in Two Thirds of the Largest Metros

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