by Bill McBride on 10/05/2013 08:55:00 AM
Saturday, October 05, 2013
Special Note: With the government shutdown, some economic data has been delayed. The first section is a list of delayed reports so far. If the shutdown ends, some of these delayed reports might be released soon.
The key report this week is September retail sales on Friday.
Other key releases include the trade deficit on Tuesday and FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
Delayed: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.
Delayed: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for August. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in orders.
Delayed: Employment Report for September. The consensus is for an increase of 178,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September; the economy added 169,000 non-farm payroll jobs in August. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 7.3% in September.
Early: The LPS August Mortgage Monitor report. This is a monthly report of mortgage delinquencies and other mortgage data.
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for August from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $12.8 billion in August.
7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.
Imports increased in July, and exports decreased.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to increase to $40.0 billion in August from $39.1 billion in July.
10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August from the BLS.
This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.
Jobs openings decreased in July to 3.689 million, down from 3.869 million in June. number of job openings (yellow) is up 5.4% year-over-year compared to July 2012.
Quits were up in July, and quits are up about 8% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories.
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for Meeting of September 17-18, 2013.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 310 thousand from 308 thousand last week. This data is gathered by the states and will continue to be released.
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales are up 28.7% from the bottom, and now 12.8% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)
The consensus is for retail sales to be unchanged in September, and to increase 0.4% ex-autos.
8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in producer prices (0.1% increase in core).
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for October). The consensus is for a reading of 75.0, down from 77.5 in September.
10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for August. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in inventories.