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Thursday, September 19, 2013

Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates Solid Expansion in September

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2013 12:05:00 PM

Note: I'll have more on existing home sales later. This was released earlier this morning ...

From the Philly Fed: September Manufacturing Survey

Manufacturing activity picked up in September, according to firms responding to this month’s Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broadest indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment were all positive and higher than in August. The survey's indicators of future activity were significantly higher, suggesting improved optimism about growth over the next six months.

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 9.3 in August to 22.3 this month. The index has now been positive for four consecutive months and is at its highest reading since March 2011. ... The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, increased 16 points, to 21.2.

Labor market indicators showed improvement this month. The current employment index increased 7 points, to 10.3, its highest reading since April of last year.
emphasis added
This was above the consensus forecast of a reading of 10.0 for September.
ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through September. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through August.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys has been positive for four consecutive months and near the high for the last 2+ years.  This suggests further solid expansion in the ISM report for September.