Friday, September 27, 2013

Personal Income increased 0.4% in August, Spending increased 0.3%

by Bill McBride on 9/27/2013 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August:

Personal income increased $57.2 billion, or 0.4 percent ... in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $34.5 billion, or 0.3 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in August, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in July. ... The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in August, the same increase as in July. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent in August, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in July.
On inflation, the PCE price index increased at a 1.7% annual rate in August, and core PCE prices increased at a 1.9% annual rate.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August (2009 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Using the two-month method to estimate Q3 PCE growth (first two months of the quarter), PCE was increasing at a 1.5% annual rate in Q3 2013 (using mid-month method, PCE was increasing at 1.6% rate).   This suggests sluggish PCE (and GDP) growth in Q3.

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