by Bill McBride on 8/30/2013 01:09:00 PM
Friday, August 30, 2013
This is a new indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for the economy.
From the American Chemistry Council: Leading Economic Indicator Shows U.S. Economy on the Upswing; Consumer-Driven Production Gains Strengthen
The pendulum of the U.S. economy remains on the upswing, according to the American Chemistry Council’s (ACC) monthly Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), released today. The economic indicator, shown to lead U.S. business cycles by an average of eight months at cycle peaks, increased 0.1 percent over July on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain. The barometer is now up 3.8 percent over a year ago, the largest year-over-year increase since September 2010. The index itself is at its highest point since June 2008. Prior CAB readings for March through July were all revised.Click on graph for larger image.
“As we approach the fourth quarter, the U.S. economy seems to be making strides, compared to the baby steps of earlier in the year,” said Dr. Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council. “The Chemical Activity Barometer is showing a strengthening of year-over-year growth and suggests an economy which finally may be gaining momentum,” he added.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in the 3-month moving average for the Chemical Activity Barometer compared to Industrial Production. It does appear that CAB (red) generally leads Industrial Production (blue).
And this suggests that economic activity is increasing.
Posted by Bill McBride on 8/30/2013 01:09:00 PM