by Bill McBride on 7/15/2013 01:01:00 PM
Monday, July 15, 2013
From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Housing Listings Multiply in June
The number of homes listed for sale increased by 4.3% in June to 1.9 million homes, the highest level in the last year, according to data released Monday by Realtor.com. ... Listings typically climb heading into the spring and summer, when housing activity hits a seasonal peak. But inventories appear to be posting larger-than-usual gains in many markets right now as they rise from their lowest levels in at least a decade. ...Note: Here is the realtor.com site (not updated with June data yet at posting time).
Nationally, the number of homes listed for sale stood 7.3% below their levels of one year earlier. The year-over-year decline stood at 18.6% in February, by contrast.
The question now is whether higher inventory will lead to higher sales volumes, and whether it will also slow the pace of home-price gains.
Last month, the NAR reported inventory was down 10.1% from May 2012. That was the smallest year-over-year (YoY) decrease since 2011, and it appears the YoY decrease will be in single digits for June (the NAR reports June sales and inventory next Monday). Tom Lawler's initial estimate is that the NAR will report a 6.3% YoY decline in inventory in June.
My guess is the YoY change for inventory will probably turn positive in September and that inventory bottomed in early 2013.
Posted by Bill McBride on 7/15/2013 01:01:00 PM