Wednesday, April 03, 2013

Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Mall Vacancy Survey

by Bill McBride on 4/03/2013 10:28:00 PM

On the March employment report from economist Sven Jari Stehn at Goldman Sachs:

Our forecast for the March employment report is a 175,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls (below the current Bloomberg consensus of a 195,000 gain), a stable 7.7% unemployment rate (in line with the consensus), and a 0.1% gain in average hourly earnings (below the consensus of 0.2%). The reasoning for our below-consensus payroll forecast is threefold.

1. The tone of the March US labor market indicators has, on balance, softened. ...

2. Special factors are likely to weigh on March payrolls. We expect a small hit of roughly 10,000 from sequestration in Friday's report. ... Separately, a negative contribution from the normalization of February's outsized employment gain in motion picture and sound recording industries appears likely. ...

3. Payrolls have outpaced broader labor market measures. ... While actual payroll growth has averaged around 200,000 over the last four months, the broader labor market dataflow has only been consistent with payroll growth of around 150,000 during this period.
I'll post an employment preview tomorrow.

Thursday economic releases:
• 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 350 thousand from 357 thousand last week. The "sequester" budget cuts appear to be impacting weekly claims.

• Early, Reis Q1 2013 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates will be released.

• At 10:00 AM, Trulia House Price Rent Monitors for March. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

• At 5:00 PM, Speech by Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen, Communication in Monetary Policy, At the 50th Anniversary Conference of the Society of American Business Editors and Writers, Washington, D.C.

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