Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 410,000

by Bill McBride on 11/21/2012 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending November 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 410,000, a decrease of 41,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 451,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,250, an increase of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average of 386,750.

[New York] +43,956 Increase in initial claims due to Hurricane Sandy. These separations were primarily in the construction, food service, and transportation industries.

[New Jersey] +31,094 Increase in initial claims due to Hurricane Sandy. These separation were primarily in the accommodation and food services, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, administrative service, healthcare and social assistance,construction, retail, professional, trade, educational service, and public administration industries.
The previous week was revised up from 439,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.


Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 396,250.

This sharp increase in the 4 week average is due to Hurricane Sandy as claims increased significantly in the impacted areas. Note the spike in 2005 related to hurricane Katrina - we are seeing a similar impact, although on a smaller scale.

Weekly claims were about at the consensus forecast.


And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

Mostly moving sideways this year until the recent spike due to Hurricane Sandy. Weekly claims should continue to decline over the next few weeks.


All current Employment Graphs

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