Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Wednesday: Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, FOMC Minutes

by Bill McBride on 11/13/2012 09:05:00 PM

From Jon Hilsenrath and Kristina Peterson at the WSJ: Fed Leans Toward Clearer Guidance

Under a new approach being considered by senior officials, the Fed would state how high inflation would have to rise or how low unemployment would have to fall before it would begin moving rates ...

"Several of my [Fed] colleagues have advocated such an approach, and I am also strongly supportive," Janet Yellen, the Fed's vice chairwoman, said ...
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans wants the Fed to offer assurances it will keep short-term rates low at least until the unemployment rate falls to 7%, as long as inflation remains below 3%. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota has proposed thresholds of 5.5% for the unemployment rate and 2.25% for inflation.
There might be a mention of possible targets in the FOMC minutes to be released on Wednesday.

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. Look for activity to rebound following Hurricane Sandy.

• At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for October will be released. Retail sales (especially auto sales) were impacted by Hurricane Sandy. The consensus is for retail sales to decrease 0.2% in October, and for retail sales ex-autos to increase 0.1%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for October will be released. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in producer prices (0.1% increase in core).

• At 10:00 AM, the Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales report for September (Business inventories). The consensus is for 0.6% increase in inventories.

• At 2:00 PM, the FOMC Minutes for Meeting of October 23-24, 2012 will be released. Look for a possible discussion of setting targets for exiting QE3.

Another question for the November economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).