by Bill McBride on 10/02/2012 09:58:00 AM
Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for August. The Case-Shiller index released last week was for July. Case-Shiller is currently the most followed house price index, however CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® August Home Price Index Rises 4.6 Percent Year-Over-Year
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 4.6 percent in August 2012 compared to August 2011. This change represents the biggest year-over-year increase since July 2006. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 0.3 percent in August 2012 compared to July 2012. The August 2012 figures mark the sixth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis. The HPI analysis from CoreLogic shows that all but six states are experiencing price gains.Click on graph for larger image.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 4.9 percent in August 2012 compared to August 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 1 percent in August 2012 compared to July 2012, also the sixth consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that September 2012 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 5 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2011 and fall by 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis from August 2012 as the summer buying season closes out. Excluding distressed sales, September 2012 house prices are poised to rise 6.3 percent year-over-year from September 2011 and by 0.6 percent month-over-month from August 2012
“Again this month prices rose on a year-over-year basis and our expectation is for that to continue in September based on our pending HPI forecast,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The housing markets gains are increasingly geographically diverse with only six states continuing to show declining prices.”
This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.
The index was up 0.3% in August, and is up 4.6% over the last year.
The index is off 26.7% from the peak - and is up 10.1% from the post-bubble low set in February (the index is NSA, so some of the increase is seasonal).
The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for six consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed earlier this year on a national basis.
Excluding the tax credit bump in 2010, these are the first year-over-year increases since 2006 - and this is the largest year-over-year increase since 2006.
On a month-to-month basis, this index will probably turn negative in September (normal seasonal decline); the key will be the year-over-year change.