by Bill McBride on 10/12/2012 01:32:00 PM
Friday, October 12, 2012
We have held the view, since May 2012, that a Greek exit from the euro area (“Grexit”) in the next 12 to 18 months is a high-probability event (90%) which we assume, for the sake of argument, would happen on January 1 2013. We are now cutting the probability of Grexit over the next 12-18 months to 60% and judge that this event will probably happen later than we previously thought, most likely in 1H 2014.There is much more in the article.
It’s all about German politics, something we have gone over before and won’t do again now. ... But essentially, everything is pointing to a slower evolution of this crisis with both Spain and Greece edging towards decisions rather than careening.
Note: I'm at the Zillow housing forum in San Francisco. The first panel just concluded "Is it a good time to buy in California?". The consensus was yes, but mortgage / housing analyst Mark Hanson thought there was a new bubble developing in some areas like Phoenix (at the low end), and that the current improvement was just a "stimulus high" and that there would be a hangover to follow.
Posted by Bill McBride on 10/12/2012 01:32:00 PM