by Bill McBride on 9/01/2012 12:57:00 PM
Saturday, September 01, 2012
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 31st
The key report for this week will be the August employment report to be released on Friday, Sept 7th. Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, vehicle sales also on Tuesday, and the ISM non-manufacturing (service) index on Thursday.
On Thursday, September 6th, there is a Governing Council meeting of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt with a press conference to follow. ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to discuss how the ECB will help lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs.
All day: Light vehicle sales for August. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 14.3 million SAAR in August from 14.1 million in July (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the July sales rate.
TrueCar is forecasting:
The August 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 14.2 million new car sales, up from 12.1 million in August 2011 and up from 14.1 million in July 2012.Edmunds.com is forecasting:
Edmunds.com ... forecasts that 1,287,603 new cars will be sold in August for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 14.5 million light vehicles.10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for August.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The ISM index has shown contraction for two consecutive months; the first contraction in the ISM index since the recession ended in 2009. The consensus is for an increase to 50.0, up from 49.8 in July. (below 50 is contraction).
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.
8:30 AM: Productivity and Costs for Q2. The consensus is for a 1.4% increase in unit labor costs.
10:00 AM: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for August. This is the new index from Trulia that uses asking prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 370 thousand from 374 thousand.
10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for an increase to 53.0 from 52.6 in July. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.
During the day: Governing Council meeting of the European Central Bank with a press conference to follow.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 8.3%.
This second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through June.
The economy has added 4.54 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (4.00 million total jobs added with all the public sector layoffs).
There are still 4.3 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007. (4.8 million fewer total nonfarm jobs).