Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Misc: ISM Seasonality, Economic predictions with Search Engines and more

by Bill McBride on 1/04/2012 09:10:00 PM

A few interesting reads ...

• From FT Alphaville: ‘Tis (still) the seasonality, ISM edition. An interesting discussion of seasonality, and how recent the recent ISM survey might be overstating strength.

• From the NY Fed: Forecasting with Internet Search Data. This is an attempt to get more recent information since data is released with a lag. I tried this with "New Homes" and it appears to track, but it is a little too noisy to use to predict new home sales from the Census Bureau.

• From Jon Lansner at the O.C. Register: Van line: Calif. jumps to No. 7 U.S. destination

Allied Van Lines’ 44th annual “Magnet States Report” says that at least by its own business patterns California is back as on the “inbound list” — states with more folks moving in than out. ... Illinois had the most net outbound losses followed by Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey and New York.
• From Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Still Cautious Heading Into 2012
Bottom Line: I want to believe the recent improvement in the tenor of economic data signals that activity is set to accelerate substantially in 2012. But the ups and downs on the past two years smoothed out to nothing exciting or catastrophic, just a moderate path of activity that remains woefully insufficient to return the US economy to its pre-recession trend. For now, I will stick to that middle ground, while remaining watchful of the all-too-many downside risks that leave me just a little bit sleepless each night.
Earlier:
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 13.56 million SAAR in December
• From the Federal Reserve: The U.S. Housing Market: Current Conditions and Policy Considerations
Question #6 for 2012: Unemployment Rate