by Bill McBride on 12/31/2011 01:06:00 PM
Saturday, December 31, 2011
• Summary for Week Ending December 30th
Happy New Year! The key report for this week will be the December employment report to be released on Friday, Jan 6th. Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, vehicle sales on Wednesday, and the ISM non-manufacturing (service) index on Thursday.
Note: Reis is expected to release their Q4 Office, Mall and Apartment vacancy rate reports this week. Last quarter Reis reported falling vacancy rates for apartments, rising vacancy rates for regional malls, and a slight decline in the office vacancy rate.
All US markets will be closed in observance of the New Year's holiday.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for November. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for December.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The consensus is for a slight increase to 53.2 from 52.7 in November.
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of December 13, 2010.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been especially weak all year, although this doesn't include cash buyers.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for November. The consensus is for a 1.9% decline in orders.
All day: Light vehicle sales for December. Light vehicle sales are expected to be unchanged at 13.6 million (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the November sales rate.
Growth in auto sales should make a strong positive contribution to Q4 GDP. Sales in Q3 averaged 12.45 million SAAR, and so far (October and November) sales have averaged 13.42 million SAAR in Q4, an increase of 7.6% over Q3.
Edmunds is forecasting:
[A] projected Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 13.4 million units, forecasts Edmunds.com ... The sales pace is a slight dip from the 13.6 million SAAR recorded last month.And TrueCar is forecasting:
The December 2011 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 13.5 million new car sales
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 160,000 payroll jobs added in November, down from the 206,000 reported in November.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decline to 375,000 from 381,000 last week. Last week was the lowest level for the 4-week average of weekly claims since mid-2008.
10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for an increase to 53.4 from 52.0 in November. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.
This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for December. The consensus is for an increase of 150,000 non-farm payroll jobs in December, up from the 120,000 jobs added in November.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 8.7% in December from 8.6% in November.
This second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through November.
Through the first eleven months of 2011, the economy has added 1.448 million total non-farm jobs or just 131 thousand per month. This is a better pace of payroll job creation than last year, but the economy still has 6.2 million fewer payroll jobs than at the beginning of the 2007 recession. The economy has added 1.711 million private sector jobs this year, or about 156 thousand per month.