by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2011 09:00:00 AM

This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Increased 1.1 Percent in October, Offsetting the 1.0 Percent Decline in September

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index®(PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, rose 1.1 percent in October after three consecutive months of negative numbers.

Over the past three months, compared to the prior three months, the PCI declined at an annualized rate of 5.8 percent and the PCI remains lower than it was during most of the first half of 2011. “The October data offer some welcome relief from the double-dip fears that were rampant a month ago, but one month does not mean a new trend. Until we get a series of positive months, it remains a she-loves-me, she-loves-me-not economy with bad news followed by good followed by bad,” said Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

On a year-over-year basis, the PCI was up 1.3 percent in October compared to the -0.2 percent decrease in the prior month. ... Based on the latest PCI data, our forecast for October Industrial Production is a 0.12 percent increase when the government estimate is released on November 16.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the index since January 2000.

This index declined sharply in late summer and this small rebound only offsets some of the recent decline.

Note: This index does appear to track Industrial Production over time (with plenty of noise).

All current Transportation graphs