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Thursday, June 16, 2011

Another House Price Index shows a small gain in April

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2011 07:18:00 PM

Back when I started this blog in January 2005, everyone followed the OFHEO index for house prices (now called the FHFA index), and none of the other indexes were publicly available. Although Case-Shiller was made available to the public in 2006, it wasn't widely followed until 2007.

Most reporters just used median prices from the NAR in 2005, but median prices are distorted by the mix of homes sold.

The first mention of the Case-Shiller index on my blog that I could find was in May 2007. The first report about the index in the LA Times appears to be on June 27, 2007 (ht Alex).

This is just a reminder that we were flying blind in 2005 and 2006!

Now the most followed house price indexes are Case-Shiller and CoreLogic; both repeat sales indexes. The FHFA index is still followed, but not as closely - it is also a repeat sales index, but only for homes with loans sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

There are several other house price indexes that I follow now: RadarLogic (based on a house price per square foot method), FNC Residential Price Index (a hedonic price index), Clear Capital, Altos Research and Zillow.

Recently Scott Sambucci, VP of Analytics at Altos Research, presented his outlook: Catfish Recovery: The Future Of US Housing

I'm planning on mentioning these other indexes, in addition to Case-Shiller and CoreLogic, and discussing some of the differences.

FNC released their house price indexes for April today. According to FNC, their Composite index of 20 cities (same cities as Case-Shiller) was up 0.7% in April. You can see the FNC composite indexes, and prices for 30 cities here.

Earlier this month, CoreLogic reported: CoreLogic® Home Price Index Shows First Month-over-Month Increase since mid-2010 (graphs here).

Other indexes - like Zillow - are still showing declines in April.

I prefer more data to almost no data, like back in 2005. But now we have to sort through all these indexes and figure out what they mean. It does appear the price declines have slowed - or prices might have increased slightly in April (CoreLogic and FNC). Some of this could be seasonal ...

Earlier:
Housing Starts increase in May
Residential Investment: Mutli-family Starts and Completions
Philly Fed Survey: "Regional manufacturing activity weakened in June"
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 414,000