Wednesday, October 28, 2009

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease

by Bill McBride on 10/28/2009 08:32:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...

The Refinance Index decreased 16.2 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.04 percent from 5.07 percent, with points increasing to 1.25 from 1.13 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.
The purchase index is off almost 17% over the last 3 weeks, and the refinance index is off about 30%.

It appears the post home buyer tax credit slump has started, although apparently the tax credit will be extended and the eligibility expanded - so the slump might be delayed ...

MBA Purchase Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 2002.

The Purchase index declined to 254.9, and the 4-week moving average declined to 280.

Note: The increase in 2007 was due to the method used to construct the index: a combination of lender failures, and borrowers filing multiple applications pushed up the index in 2007, even though activity was actually declining.

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