Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Forecast: San Diego Office Vacancy Rate to Top 20%

by Bill McBride on 2/04/2009 11:30:00 AM

From the San Diego Union-Tribune: Offices' vacancy outlook gloomy

[T]he latest prediction from a survey conducted by the UCLA Anderson Forecast and real estate law firm Allen Matkins ... are grim. UCLA's computer models predict that office rents will continue to decline all the way through 2010. When adjusted for inflation, they are expected to be at levels seen in the mid-1990s.

Occupancy also is expected to fall over the next few years. UCLA's computer models have vacancies topping out at 22 percent by the end of 2010.

Today, office vacancies range from 14 percent to 17 percent, according to reports from local commercial brokers.
This still might be too optimistic.