Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Goldman Sachs expects one of weakest Employment Reports in 20 years

by Bill McBride on 11/05/2008 05:46:00 PM

In a research note today, Goldman Sachs changed their forecast (no link):

We have deepened our forecast of the change in payroll employment for October to -300,000 from -250,000. ... The drop in payrolls we are now forecasting would be one of the worst month-over-month declines in the past twenty years. ... Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the October decline in payroll employment will be the worst of this cycle. Real activity appears to have contracted sharply in October and ... could well bleed into November and cause another large drop in payroll employment ...
It sounds like the numbers to be released this Friday will be grim.

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