by Bill McBride on 10/10/2007 10:20:00 AM
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
The comedians at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revised down their forecast today for existing home sales in 2007 again. Their current forecast is for sales to be 5.78 million in 2007, down for 5.92 million last month.
Compare this to their original forecast from Dec '06 of 6.4 million units in 2007. (My forecast was for existing home sales to be between 5.6 and 5.8 million units).
The NAR forecast is still too high, even after eight straight months of negative revisions. Luckily for the NAR, they still have two more downward revisions to go.
From the NAR: Improvement in Mortgage Market Bodes Well for Housing in 2008
Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.78 million in 2007 and then rise to 6.12 million next year, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006. New-home sales are forecast at 804,000 this year and 752,000 in 2008, down from 1.05 million in 2006; a recovery for new homes will be delayed until next spring.Very funny. Thanks for the laughs!
Existing-home prices will probably slip 1.3 percent to a median of $219,000 in 2007 before rising 1.3 percent next year to $221,800. The median new-home price should drop 2.1 percent to $241,400 this year, and then increase 1.0 percent in 2008 to $243,900.