by Bill McBride on 10/26/2006 10:27:00 AM
Thursday, October 26, 2006
According to the Census Bureau report, New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.075 million. Sales for August were revised down to 1.021 million, from 1.050 million. Numbers for June and July were also revised down.
Click on Graph for larger image.
Sales of new one-family houses in September 2006 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,075,000 ... This is 5.3 percent above the revised August rate of 1,021,000, but is 14.2 percent below the September 2005 estimate of 1,253,000.
The Not Seasonally Adjusted monthly rate was 85,000 New Homes sold. There were 99,000 New Homes sold in September 2005.
On a year over year NSA basis, September 2006 sales were 14.1% lower than September 2005. Also, Setpember '06 sales were below Setpember 2004 (94,000) and September 2003 (90,000) sales. This is the lowest September since 2002 when 82,000 new homes were sold.
The median and average sales prices were down significantly. Caution should be used when analyzing monthly price changes since prices are heavily revised.
The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2006 was $217,100; the average sales price was $293,200.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 557,000. This represents a supply of 6.4 months at the current sales rate.
The 557,000 units of inventory is down slightly over the last two months. Inventory numbers from the Census Bureau do not include cancellations - and cancellations are at record levels. Actual New Home inventories are much higher.
On a months of supply basis, inventory is above the level of recent years.
This another very weak report, especially considering the strong downward revisions for the previous months.
More later today on New Home Sales.