by CalculatedRisk on 9/19/2006 06:02:00 PM

DataQuick reports: Continued slowdown for Southland home sales

Home sales in Southern California continued at their slowest pace in nine years as price levels appeared to be nearing a plateau, a real estate information service reported.
...
The median price paid for a Southland home was $489,000 last month. That was down 0.6 percent from July's $492,000, and up 2.7 percent from $476,000 in August last year. Last month's increase was the smallest since July 1999, when the $193,000 median also rose 2.7 percent from $188,000 a year earlier.

NOTE: San Diego median prices are below the level of two years ago.

Southern California Median Home Prices
Area	Aug '04	Aug '05	Aug '06	Pct Change
Los Angeles	$407K	$494K	$517K	4.7%
Orange County	$543K	$617K	$633K	2.6%
San Diego	$483K	$493K	$482K	-2.2%
Riverside	$334K	$388K	$415K	7.0%
San Bernardino	$261K	$344K	$365K	6.1%
Ventura	$514K	$592K	$598K	1.0%
Southern California	$407K	$476K	$489K	2.7%

I added the August June 2004 median prices to give a two year perspective on prices.

A total of 25,628 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 12.8% from 22,712 in July, and down 25.3 percent from 34,292 for August a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Sales have declined on a year-over-year basis the last nine months. Last month's sales count was the lowest for any August since 22,308 homes were sold in August 1997. DataQuick's statistics go back to 1988, August sales have varied from 12,769 in 1992 to 35,339 in 1988. An average August has 25,845 sales.

Southern California Homes Sold
Area	Aug '04	Aug '05	Aug '06	Pct Change
Los Angeles	10,710	11,653	9,193	-21.1%
Orange County	3,745	4,708	3,203	-32.0%
San Diego	5,580	5,379	3,666	-31.8%
Riverside	5,579	6,542	4,879	-24.4%
San Bernardino	4,319	4,522	3,611	-20.1%
Ventura	1,198	1,578	1,076	-31.8%
Southern California	31,131	34,292	25,628	-25.3%

Notice that San Diego had declining sales in 2005 compared to 2004. As LA Times writer David Streitfeld noted about the San Diego housing market:

San Diego had the wildest run-up among major California cities, with prices tripling since the mid-1990s. ... The market also began to fade first in San Diego. ...

Whatever happens [in San Diego], optimists and pessimists agree, will happen later in the rest of the state.

It does appear that San Diego is leading the way, and I think that means declining prices soon in all of SoCal.