Saturday, September 24, 2005

Rita: Oil Refinery Impact

by Bill McBride on 9/24/2005 02:31:00 PM

UPDATE: Status added to some refineries (see list).

The AP reports: Feds Optimistic That Houston Refineries OK

Federal officials were "cautiously optimistic" Saturday that one of the largest concentrations of Texas refineries near Houston escaped serious damage as Hurricane Rita veered farther to the east.

But the Energy Department said it was too soon to assess the impact of the storm on a cluster of refineries in the Port Arthur-Beaumont area that caught the direct impact of the hurricane as it came ashore.

Based on computer modeling and initial reports, department spokesman Craig Stevens said, "We're cautiously optimistic about (the Houston) ... region" and "that the petroleum supply will be OK."

"But we really need to look at the Port Arthur region and other areas directly impacted. ... It may still be two or three days before we get a sense of the actual picture," he said.
As mentioned in the article, the biggest concern is for the refineries in the Port Arthur-Beaumont and Lake Charles areas. These include:
FAR EASTERN TEXAS1,013,500 (Total)
ExxonMobilBeaumont, Tex.348,500
ValeroPort Arthur, Tex.250,0004 feet water, 2 to 4 weeks
MotivaPort Arthur, Tex.235,000flooded with 4-5 feet water, no date
TotalPort Arthur, Tex.180,000

CitgoLake Charles, La.324,300minor damage reported
ConocoPhillipsWestlake, La.239,000
CalcasieuLake Charles, La.30,000

Four refineries remain shut down from Katrina: three in New Orleans and the Chevron refinery in Pascagolua, Mississsippi.
Four refineries (ChevronTexaco, located in Pascagoula, MS; ConocoPhillips, located in Belle Chasse, LA; ExxonMobil, located in Chalmette, LA; and Murphy Oil, located in Meraux, LA) remain shut down, and expectations are that these refineries, which represent about 5 percent of total U.S. refining capacity, could be shut down for an extended period.
For production, the Minerals Mining Service reports that 100% of GOM oil production is shut-in:
Today’s shut-in oil production is 1,500,898 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 100% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.

Today’s shut-in gas production is 7.488 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 74.88% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.
The immediate concern is the loss of refining capacity. For the short term, the loss of oil production is not critical (see Dr. Hamilton's Economic effects of Rita)