Monday, April 18, 2005

Bubble Employment

by Bill McBride on 4/18/2005 11:12:00 AM

Here are a couple of charts on real estate related employment.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph is from The Big Picture.

For RE agents, California alone has added 113,307 licensed RE agents since July 2000. The total RE agents in California (427,389) represents 1.9% of the total working population of California. Many of these agents only work part-time, but that is still a substantial loss of income if RE volumes drop 30 to 40% - like a typical RE slowdown.

Thanks to ild and Elroy for the second chart.

Just like RE agents, there has been a significant increase in mortgage brokers. There has been a similar increase in residential building trades, appraisers, home inspectors and other housing related occupations. The impact of a housing slowdown on employment will be significant.